The lead-up to Bolivia’s presidential election on August 17 shifted dramatically when President Luis Arce announced via social media that he would not seek re-election.
Arce stated that stepping aside was necessary to avoid dividing the left and unintentionally empowering what he described as a “fascist right-wing agenda.” On the same day, Bolivia’s Constitutional Court reaffirmed that former president and MAS party founder Evo Morales remains ineligible to run, citing the constitutional two-term limit.
Challenges of Arce’s Presidency
Luis Arce assumed office in 2020 following Evo Morales’s exile and a brief interim government under conservative Jeanine Áñez. However, his presidency has been marked by internal conflict and economic instability. Despite being political allies in the past, Arce and Morales have increasingly clashed. Economic struggles have worsened public frustration, with inflation reaching its highest level in a decade, dwindling foreign reserves, and the local currency, the boliviano, trading at nearly half its official rate on the black market. Once a major natural gas exporter, Bolivia now relies on fuel imports to meet domestic needs.
Arce has also faced intense pressure from conservative forces. A delayed national census in 2022 sparked deadly unrest in Santa Cruz, and in June 2024, a failed coup attempt by army commander Juan José Zúñiga—appointed by Arce himself—further destabilized the political landscape. Zúñiga accused Arce of being responsible for increasing poverty. In his resignation announcement, Arce urged the left to consolidate its efforts behind a unified candidate to prevent what he called “Bolivia’s looters” from taking power.
Evo Morales’s Continued Influence
Evo Morales, Bolivia’s first Indigenous president, led the country from 2006 until 2019. During his tenure, he circumvented constitutional limits twice, eventually leading to a political crisis in 2019 that forced him into exile. Although Bolivia’s top court has consistently upheld his disqualification from running again, Morales insists that only the electorate—not the judiciary—has the authority to bar him. Despite serious allegations, including electoral misconduct and a statutory rape investigation he denies, Morales maintains considerable support, particularly among rural and Indigenous communities. He remains active from his base in Cochabamba, surrounded by devoted followers.
Uncertain Electoral Landscape
With Arce voluntarily exiting the race and Morales constitutionally barred, the MAS party must now swiftly identify a new standard-bearer if it hopes to retain power. The political vacuum leaves the field open, with a fragmented left and energized right adding unpredictability to the upcoming election.
According to a report by consultancy firm Control Risks, Morales’s grassroots movement retains the capacity to cause national disruption through blockades and protests—a tactic that has historically affected the Bolivian economy. This trend is expected to persist and may complicate efforts by future governments to introduce vital reforms.
The report also emphasizes Morales’s enduring influence on Bolivia’s political and economic landscape, particularly among the country’s Indigenous majority, who represent around 62% of the population. Given this support, social unrest is expected to continue post-election, deterring any incoming administration from making bold structural changes. The report warns that Morales will likely resist any policy shifts that undermine the MAS party’s foundational framework.
Written by:
Dr. Iqbal Survé
Former Chairman, BRICS Business Council; Co-chair, BRICS Media Forum & BRNN
Cole Jackson
Lead Associate, BRICS+ Consulting Group
Specialist in Chinese and South American Affairs
