U.S. foreign policy analyst Michael Walsh has cautioned that the recently announced 30% tariff on South African goods may be the first of several punitive actions the Trump administration intends to take against Pretoria in the coming year.
This follows an announcement by former President Donald Trump, who stated that effective August 1, a blanket 30% tariff will be imposed on all South African exports to the U.S., citing the need to address what he described as “unsustainable trade imbalances” disadvantaging America.
Walsh, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Pennsylvania, believes the tariff is only the beginning. He suggests that Washington may escalate its response to what it perceives as South Africa’s policy divergence from American foreign and national security interests. Future steps, he said, could include economic sanctions, visa restrictions, travel bans, and even counterterrorism-related inquiries.
According to Walsh, the Trump administration’s doctrine emphasizes reciprocal trade and does not shy away from using economic leverage against governments seen as acting contrary to U.S. global objectives.
“This administration is committed to using trade and financial pressure to punish those who undermine U.S. interests. The tariff move is aligned with that strategy,” Walsh said.
He emphasized that more retaliatory actions should be expected before the year ends.
“This will not end with tariffs, just as it did not end with the halt on foreign aid. The Trump administration is determined to treat South Africa similarly to how it deals with rivals and adversaries.”
He added that South Africa’s close ties with countries like Iran and China, along with its involvement in BRICS, are at odds with Washington’s geopolitical aims.
“This isn’t the Biden era. Under Trump, if South Africa continues partnering with U.S. adversaries, it will face direct consequences.”
BRICS Under Scrutiny
Trump also threatened to introduce a 10% tariff on all BRICS nations, citing their “anti-American stance” and efforts to challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system.
“If you’re in BRICS, you’ll soon be facing a 10% tariff,” Trump said, accusing the group of undermining U.S. influence.
Walsh said these developments reflect a fundamentally altered U.S. posture toward South Africa, requiring deep reflection by its policymakers.
“South Africans must assess whether aligning with powers that oppose U.S. global interests serves their national good. If not, they should be prepared for escalating consequences.”
He further warned that assumptions about continued access to U.S. trade programs such as AGOA, or participation in multilateral platforms like the G20, may be misplaced under the current trajectory of U.S.-South Africa relations.
“This is a new phase. The previous norms are gone, and expectations must adjust accordingly,” he concluded.
Business Sector Reacts
Commenting on the development, Everest Wealth Advisory CEO Thys van Zyl described the tariff imposition as a serious setback for South Africa’s export sector.
“This decision will hit our economy hard and reflects how political missteps and uncertainty have eroded our international standing.”
Van Zyl noted that despite President Ramaphosa’s recent visit to the U.S., where discussions were held with Trump, South Africa failed to secure protective trade mechanisms.
“What’s alarming is that there seemed to be room for negotiation, yet our government didn’t move decisively enough. We now need a clear, results-driven trade strategy—not rhetoric.”
He called for urgent corrective measures to protect exporters and rebuild investor confidence in the face of deteriorating diplomatic ties with a key trade partner.
