Agronomist Reneth Mano, in an interview with The Africa Report, launched a scathing attack on the government’s wheat production strategy, labeling it “ill-advised” and accusing authorities of grossly overstating the success of the national harvest while failing to protect local farmers.
Mano’s critique centers on the quality deficit of locally produced grain, which he argues is undercutting local farmers while keeping consumer bread prices high.
Mano directly questions the country’s wheat production strategy, asserting that it is fundamentally flawed because it focuses on volume through irrigated farming but “keeps producing low average yields of commercial-grade wheat.”
He highlighted an “unenviable market situation” created by this quality gap, warning it could result in “heavy losses for small-scale and large-scale wheat farmers.” This is due to a pricing anomaly where local wheat is set at $450 per metric tonne (MT), making it more expensive than imported wheat, which sells at the import parity price of $380 to $420 per MT.
According to Mano, achieving a bumper harvest does not automatically translate into lower bread prices. He insists that low bakery product prices can only be achieved if the wheat produced locally is of good quality and if the country increases the supply of commercial-milling grades of wheat.
He noted that the liberalisation of the wheat market is now exposing farmers to the “stringent grading system of private wheat milling and baking companies.” Mano starkly illustrated the gravity of the quality issue by stating that in Europe, this low-quality wheat grade is “priced the same as maize and is reportedly sold as feed grade wheat to stock feed companies.”
Mano pointed out a “worrisome” gap between the government’s reported wheat harvest figures and commercially traded quantities. He explicitly disputed the government’s claim of a 640,000 MT bumper yield, stating that the figure “needs correct verification.”
Of the claimed 640,000 MT bumper yield reported by the government, Mano asserted that only 240,000 MT of commercial-milling-grade wheat was procured.
He detailed the actual market breakdown for 2024: the total requirement of the formal commercial-milling and baking industry was 552,000 MT. Of this, 312,000 MT (57%) was met through imports, with only 240,000 MT (43%) supplied by local farmers.
The agronomist demanded “scientific verification” regarding the fate of a residual amount of 220,000 MT, questioning whether there was “significant error in government methodology of estimating the wheat harvest.”
Mano further challenged official government data on national wheat consumption, arguing the official figure of 360,000 MT per year (or 21kg per person) is a “gross underestimate.”
“All evidence at our disposal would dispute this figure as a gross underestimate,” Mano said.
His new estimate, based on commercial purchases and import volumes, places the domestic wheat requirement at a minimum of 552,000 MT. Mano believes the country’s true per capita consumption is likely in the range of 45kg to 57kg per year, comparable to upper-middle-income SADC economies like Namibia and Botswana.
Mano concluded that for effective planning, Zimbabwe’s national wheat self-sufficiency target should realistically be set at 640,000 MT of quality, commercial-milling-grade wheat.
